Search results for " scena"
showing 10 items of 105 documents
Simulating future trends in hydrological regime of a large Sudano-Sahelian catchment under climate change
2012
Summary This paper assesses the future variability of water resources in the short, medium and long terms over a large Sudano-Sahelian catchment in West Africa. Flow simulations were performed with a daily conceptual model. A period of nearly 50 years (1952–2000) was chosen to capture long-term hydro-climatic variability. Calibration and validation were performed on the basis of a multi-objective function that aggregates a variety of goodness-of-fit indices. The climate models HadCM3 and MPI-M under SRES-A2 were used to provide future climate scenarios over the catchment. Outputs from these models were used to generate daily rainfall and temperature series for the 21st century according to:…
Current and Future Influence of Environmental Factors on Small Pelagic Fish Distributions in the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea
2020
Managing for the Future: Understanding the Relative Roles of Climate and Fishing on Structure and Dynamics of Marine Ecosystems.-- 20 pages, 15 figures, supplementary material https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2020.00622/full#supplementary-material
Moving Toward a Strategy for Addressing Climate Displacement of Marine Resources: A Proof-of-Concept
2020
Realistic predictions of climate change effects on natural resources are central to adaptation policies that try to reduce these impacts. However, most current forecasting approaches do not incorporate species-specific, process-based biological information, which limits their ability to inform actionable strategies. Mechanistic approaches, incorporating quantitative information on functional traits, can potentially predict species- and population-specific responses that result from the cumulative impacts of small-scale processes acting at the organismal level, and can be used to infer population-level dynamics and inform natural resources management. Here we present a proof-of-concept study…
Changing winter conditions in the boreal forest : the effects of fluctuating temperature and predation risk on activity and physiological stress leve…
2016
Due to global climate change, the winter conditions in the North are predicted to change, as the time with an intact insulating snow cover gets shorter or disappears altogether. For small mammals, this could cause exposure to strong temperature fluctuations and increased predation risk, inducing severe stress and leading to alterations in the physical condition and behavior. To test this, we exposed bank voles (Myodes glareolus) to different temperature regimes and cues of predator threat under laboratory conditions. The test animals experienced either a stable but cool temperature regime resembling the stable conditions under snow cover, or an unstable temperature regime with cold nights a…
Distribution of sea urchins living near shallow water CO2 vents is dependent upon species acid-base and ion-regulatory abilities.
2013
To reduce the negative effect of climate change on Biodiversity, the use of geological CO2 sequestration has been proposed; however leakage from underwater storages may represent a risk to marine life. As extracellular homeostasis is important in determining species' ability to cope with elevated CO2, we investigated the acid-base and ion regulatory responses, as well as the density, of sea urchins living around CO2 vents at Vulcano, Italy. We conducted in situ transplantation and field-based laboratory exposures to different pCO2/pH regimes. Our results confirm that sea urchins have some ability to regulate their extracellular fluid under elevated pCO2. Furthermore, we show that even in cl…
Ecophysiological Modeling of Grapevine Water Stress in Burgundy Terroirs by a Machine-Learning Approach
2016
13 pages; International audience; In a climate change scenario, successful modeling of the relationships between plant-soil-meteorology is crucial for a sustainable agricultural production, especially for perennial crops. Grapevines (Vitis vinifera L. cv Chardonnay) located in eight experimental plots (Burgundy, France) along a hillslope were monitored weekly for 3 years for leaf water potentials, both at predawn (Ψpd) and at midday (Ψstem). The water stress experienced by grapevine was modeled as a function of meteorological data (minimum and maximum temperature, rainfall) and soil characteristics (soil texture, gravel content, slope) by a gradient boosting machine. Model performance was a…
Environmental Modelling of Forest Vegetation Zones as A Support Tool for Sustainable Management of Central European Spruce Forests
2018
Abstract The impact of climate change on forest ecosystems may manifest itself by a shift in forest vegetation zones in the landscape northward and into higher elevations. Studies of climate change-induced vegetation zone shifts in forest ecosystems have been relatively rare in the context of European temperate zone (apart from Alpine regions). The presented paper outlines the results of a biogeographic model of climatic conditions in forest vegetation zones applied in the Central European landscape. The objective of the study is a prediction of future silvicultural conditions for the Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst.), which is one of the principal tree species within European forests. …
Modelling landscape constraints on farmland bird species range shifts under climate change
2018
Several studies estimating the effects of global environmental change on biodiversity are focused on climate change. Yet, non-climatic factors such as changes in land cover can also be of paramount importance. This may be particularly important for habitat specialists associated with human-dominated landscapes, where land cover and climate changes may be largely decoupled. Here, we tested this idea by modelling the influence of climate, landscape composition and pattern, on the predicted future (2021–2050) distributions of 21 farmland bird species in the Iberian Peninsula, using boosted regression trees and 10-km resolution presence/absence data. We also evaluated whether habitat specialist…
A Methodology for Modeling and Optimizing Social Systems
2020
[EN] A system methodology for modeling and optimizing social systems is presented. It allows constructing dynamical models formulated stochastically, i.e., their results are given by confidence intervals. The models provide optimal intervention ways to reach the stated objectives. Two optimization methods are used: (1) to test strategies and scenarios and (2) to optimize with a genetic algorithm. The application case presented is a small nonformal education Spanish business. First, the model is validated in the 2008-2012 period, and subsequently, the optimal way to obtain a maximum profit in the 2013-2025 period is obtained using the two methods.
State Observer with Round-Robin Aperiodic Sampled Measurements with Jitter
2021
International audience; A sampled-data observer is proposed for linear continuous-time systems whose outputs are sequentially sampled via non-uniform sampling intervals repeating a prescribed Round-Robin sequence. With constant sampling intervals (jitter-free case) we provide constructive necessary and sufficient conditions for the design of an asymptotic continuous-discrete observer whose estimation error is input-to-state stable (ISS) from process disturbances and measurement noise. We use a time-varying gain depending on the elapsed time since the last measurement. With non-constant sampling intervals (jitter-tolerant case), our design conditions are only sufficient. A suspension system …